Slowdown: The Velocity of Brokerage Revenue Decline

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Q3 results are in for the large, publicly-listed brokerages and revenues are down across the board – but that’s only part of the story.

Why it matters: The velocity of decline between brokerages varies, providing early insight into which companies may be at higher risk than others in a cooling market.

Dig deeper: Compared to the previous quarter, all brokerages experienced a drop in revenue – which is expected from a seasonal perspective.

  • Douglas Elliman and Compass experienced the largest decline, a likely combination of concentration in more upscale markets (NYC and California) that are cooling faster than others.

 
 

Behind the numbers: Driving the revenue decline is a drop in overall market transactions compared to the previous quarter.

  • Notably, Compass closed 18 percent fewer transactions than the previous quarter, which is double the 9 percent decline in transactions for the entire residential real estate market as reported by NAR.

  • Astute observers will note Douglas Elliman’s 7 percent decline in transactions compared to a 25 percent decline in revenue; this is driven by a 13 percent drop in average sale price.

 
 

Yes, but: In Q2, Compass outperformed the market with a 41 percent quarterly increase in transactions compared to an overall market increase of 28 percent.

Compared to last year, most brokerages experienced a significant revenue decline in Q3 (remember, 2021 was an outlier).

  • The exception is eXp, which is benefiting from tremendous growth in agent count, transaction volume, and market share.

  • eXp’s year-over-year growth stands in notable contrast to industry heavyweights Anywhere and Compass, which both experienced year-over-year declines in revenue.

 
 

What to watch: It’s exceedingly likely that revenue will continue to decline for the next two quarters, which is absolutely normal from a historical and seasonal perspective.

  • The key metric to watch is the velocity of decline and how it varies between peers and compares to the overall market.

The bottom line: All brokerages are entering the literal and figurative winter of real estate.

  • The next two quarters are always the slowest in the industry, and coupled with a cooling market, are going to be especially challenging.

  • Fewer transactions and lower revenue will put pressure on all brokerages, with some affected more severely than others.

Further Cuts on Compass' Path to Profitability

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Compass continued to burn cash in the latest quarter, but also demonstrated a reduction in operating expenses as the company aims for breakeven in 2023.

Why it matters: With a historically high cash burn in a cooling real estate market, Compass needs to cut costs extensively to achieve profitability.

  • Furthermore, the company signaled further cuts to bring expenses in line with revenue in 2023.

Behind the numbers: Compass burned $76 million in Q3 2022, continuing a run of cash flow negative quarters.

  • Of that $76 million, there were one-time restructuring and litigation expenses of $40 million.

 
 

Compass ended the quarter with $355 million in cash.

  • Historically, Q4 and Q1 is where cash burn is highest, due to the seasonal decline in revenue.

  • Coupled with a cooling market, the next six months are going to be tough.

 
 

What they're saying: On its earnings call, Compass signaled that further cuts are coming:

  • ”…we will be implementing additional cost reduction initiatives to get ahead of any future market declines.”

  • ”We are committed to driving our non-GAAP operating expenses well below the low end of our range of $1.05 billion in 2023.”

Compass' initial cost reduction program was an effort to get annual operating expenses to a run rate of $1.05–$1.15 billion (down from $1.48 billion).

  • In total, the proposed cuts would represent an overall reduction in operating expenses of around 33 percent -- a very significant change.

 
 

Dig deeper: If breakeven in 2023 is the goal, working backwards reveals the various revenue estimates needed to achieve that goal.

  • Compass' first set of cuts suggested a five percent revenue decline in 2023, but the latest cuts suggest a deeper 14 percent drop in revenue.

 
 

The bottom line: All brokerages, Compass included, are entering the literal and figurative winter of real estate; the next two quarters are going to be tough.

  • With a historically high cash burn, Compass needs to cut faster and deeper than most other brokerages -- and it is.

  • The question for all brokerages making cuts remains the same: can it be done while still remaining attractive to, and providing the same value to, agents.

Predators and Prey

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The real estate industry is in the midst of a massive financial reckoning: public company valuations down by billions, widespread layoffs, and a rush for venture-funded disruptors to conserve cash and demonstrate sustainable business models.

Why it matters: Amidst this turmoil, the industry is bifurcating into predators and prey -- companies that have the resources to expand through acquisition, and those burning cash that are vulnerable to takeover.

  • Companies with dwindling cash balances and high cash burn will be forced to raise funds or face insolvency (for example, Reali closing operations).

The predators have the financial resources -- namely, vast amounts of cash -- to take advantage of the current market situation and acquire vulnerable businesses.

 
 

Companies like Zillow, CoStar, and Rocket are certainly predators: flush with cash and opportunistically acquisitive in their outlook.

  • Opendoor is the outlier; although it has plenty of cash on hand, it’s about to enter (at least) two quarters of massive financial losses.

  • Private equity firms with plenty of cash to deploy are the other opportunistic predators.

The prey are the businesses that are vulnerable -- diminishing cash balances with high cash burn. In other words, a typical real estate tech disruptor.

 
 

The majority of prey are the hundreds of private companies whose financials are not publicly available.

  • The severity of their situation depends on when they last raised money, how quickly they're spending it, and how much they have in the bank.

  • If a company doesn't have at least 12 months of runway, they're prey.

 
 

What to watch: The name of the game for the next 6–18 months is VUCA -- volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous.

  • Expect to see a larger amount of mergers, acquisitions, consolidation, and liquidation.

The bottom line: Cash is king. In today's market, a company’s cash flow determines if it is in control of its own destiny.

  • If a company is burning cash and needs to raise additional funds, it will be forced to do so on someone else’s terms.

  • But, if a company is cash flow positive with a solid balance sheet, a VUCA environment presents incredible opportunity.

  • "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."
    - Warren Buffet

Behind the Scenes: Writing a 361-Word Article

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Last week I published 2021 Is An Outlier, Not A Benchmark, which turned out to be one of my most-read and most-shared articles of the year. Even though it was only 361-words long, it took a considerable amount of time and energy to create. I’d like to share a behind the scenes look at my writing and research process, and what it takes for me to produce a concise, high-impact analysis.

Step 1: Curiosity
All of my analysis starts with intellectual curiosity. Because I work to my own deadlines and I’m not paid to write, I have the freedom to explore. In this case, I was curious about the housing market. The key questions swirling in my head were:

  • The headlines around the number of houses sold are really negative; is it really this bad?

  • How does 2022 compare to the pre-pandemic years?

  • What else should I know about this situation?

These questions sat in the back of my mind, occasionally entering my consciousness, for months. I would pay more and more attention to the monthly reports from NAR, Redfin, and others, zeroing in on the percentage drops in volume compared to last year. This led to a thirst for more data.

Step 2: Data Collection
All of my work is evidence-based and data-driven, so I knew I needed data. In this case, the necessary data was quite straightforward: existing home sale transaction volumes. Luckily for me, the NAR tracks and reports on this, and after reaching out to them I had my hands on a significant amount of historical transaction data.

For a first, rough analysis, I threw the data into Excel and quickly plotted some charts. At first I was just looking at 2022 compared to 2021, and it was a grim visual indeed. From there I added 2019 and 2020 to build a broader picture. That’s when the first hit of adrenaline came: 2022 was performing better than 2019. I recall looking at the June numbers, and while the media headlines focused on the 15 percent decline in volumes compared to last year, I noticed that the volume in 2022 was exactly the same as 2019.

 
 

Step 3: Storytelling & Data Iteration
There was enough initial data to reveal an interesting story. Now I entered a phase of rapid iteration and exploration (more data, more visualizations, more insights). I collected ten years of historical data, back to 2012, and started plotting everything. It turns out that 2022 wasn’t a disaster after all and the monthly volumes fell within the bounds of several past years.

 
 

I also made my own estimates for the rest of the year. At the time, 2022 was running around 10 percent lower each month compared to 2019. What if volumes were down 10 percent for each remaining month? It’s rough, but it’s a start, and the result provided a relatively solid estimate on what the remainder of the year could look like.

Meanwhile, at this point I started rolling over various narratives in my head. The first was something along the lines of, “2022 isn’t as bad as it seems.” Yes, the market is slowing down compared to last year, but put within a wider historical context, the market is still active, people are still moving, and, most revealing, transaction volumes are within the bounds of historical averages.

It was around this time that I stumbled upon the answer to my question, “What else should I know about this situation?” The answer was the commission pool, and the insight produced a powerful one-two punch for the entire analysis. Not only was 2022 not as bad as the headlines suggest, but because of rising home prices, the commission pool was going to remain at near-record levels — far above the historical average.

 
 

The commission insight revealed itself thanks to my previous work. I had written about how big tech companies were coming after agent commissions in the past, so it’s a topic that occupies a permanent place in my mind. It simply appeared, like many insights do, during one of my mindless moments riding a bike, sipping coffee, driving across town, or hiking in the mountains.

For this article I also created a rough outline. My intention with an outline is to collect and order the various key insights and takeaways as I discover them.

 
 

Step 4: Data Visualizations
At this point I was committed to writing and publishing something. The bedrock of my analyses are clear, concise, and compelling charts — the creation of which is a non-trivial task!

It’s at this point I go back to my narrative; if the point is to show that 2022 isn’t so bad in the context of past years, how can I quickly demonstrate that with a clear chart? I started with a line graph showing monthly sales volumes.

 
 

The chart wasn’t compelling because the key takeaway wasn’t immediately clear. Back to the drawing board. Only after several iterations did I realize I didn’t need to show monthly volumes; annual would suffice to tell the story. Simplifying the chart helped to sharpen the narrative.

 
 

Adjusting a chart’s y-axis is a subtle way to influence how data is visualized and interpreted. It’s a mechanism that I typically steer away from (I’m generally a y-axis starts at zero purist), but in this case, I felt that adjusting the y-axis helped to tell the story in a clear and transparent way.

 
 

Step 5: Writing
Sitting down and writing a first draft may be the fastest part of my entire process. By this point, the story feels seventy-five percent clear in my mind. I start by putting all of the graphs I’ve created into one document and order them in a way that tells a clear story. Visuals first, then words.

My writing aims to weave the various data together into a clear and compelling narrative. I always start by describing the key takeaways for each graph.

For me, the most challenging part of writing is the introduction. Robert Caro, one of my favorite authors, distills down an entire book into 1–3 paragraphs before he starts writing. That’s what I endeavor to do; how can I summarize the entire analysis into one sentence? And next, why should someone care?

The writing went pretty quick for this analysis, and my subconscious chipped in with an assist. Over the weekend, the introduction simply materialized in my mind while hiking. I’m grateful for the parts of my brain that continue to tick away on something while I’m otherwise occupied.

Step 6: Editing
Just because I write something doesn’t mean it’s immediately worthy of your time. The entire piece, from data to charts to words, needs to be continually refined until it’s distilled down to its purest form. This process is agonizing and immensely enjoyable all at once, and usually lasts a few days. For this 361-word article, I read, re-read, and revised the draft at least fifty times.

Phrases like “less is more” and “quality over quantity” are often part of my everyday life. My editing goal is the same: to provide the smallest amount of information necessary to make a strong point. In this case, many extraneous sentences (and even a chart) were removed in order to provide a clear and cohesive narrative.

Every single word needs to add something to the analysis. If it doesn’t, I cut. And editing isn’t limited to words; it also includes charts. Adjusting chart titles and adding call-outs are just as important.

The following chart benefited greatly from the addition of several key percentages, explanatory text, and a visual representation of the historical average.

 
 

This chart also benefited from a pair of call-outs to reduce the mental load for the reader.

 
 

I also realized the commission pool chart would benefit from a clear visual of the additional $25 billion compared to 2019.

 
 

While editing, I send multiple draft emails to myself for the full mobile reading experience. It's important to read my drafts as my audience will, and the process helps with editing, readability, and overall flow. For this article, I sent three separate draft emails to myself.

During the editing process I occasionally nerd out a bit. I love grammar and punctuation. There’s an important difference between an en dash and a hyphen. And for this article, the Gregg Reference Manual helped me by providing guidance on how numbers should be written out in sentences. I write out “percent” instead of % on purpose. Three of my favorite books are within arms reach on my desk.

 
 

One of the final pieces of editing is getting the heading and subject line right. I don’t write headlines as clickbait — I aim for a brief, compelling summary of the content of my article. In this case, there was much agonizing over individual words: is it “2021 Is The Outlier,” or “2021 is An Outlier?” Details matter.

An important component of my editing process is time. I often do a few editing passes in a row, but then need to let it sit for a few hours while I do something else. There’s no point, at least for me, to power through the process. Once I hit a wall, I need to leave it and come back to it later, which never fails to produce a better outcome with a somewhat refreshed perspective.

Just Press Send
I could continue editing for weeks, but at some point the entire process comes to a close with diminishing returns (and my need to mentally move on to something else). I’m always thrilled to publish a new piece of work and to see the reactions. I enjoy the responses I receive from readers, oftentimes sharing their own perspectives and observations on what I’ve written about.

I enjoy writing. At times, the process can be laborious and mentally taxing, but I’m passionate about the topics I write about. My fulfillment comes from the journey, not the destination. In the end it’s the entire process — from initial curiosity to final edits — that makes me, and hopefully you, a little bit smarter.

2021 is an Outlier, Not a Benchmark

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The pandemic years, especially 2021, were a strange aberration where everyone moved, house prices skyrocketed, and nearly every real estate business posted record revenues.

Why it matters: 2022 is constantly being compared to 2021, which was anything but normal, and year-over-year comparisons are painting a deeply negative picture.

Dig deeper: Assuming a fairly conservative 5.15 million existing home sales in 2022, the comparison to last year is a sobering 16 percent drop -- but 2021 is an outlier, not a benchmark.

  • Compared to the historical average of the previous eight years (2012–2019), transaction volumes in 2022 would be down only 0.9 percent.

  • By contrast, compared to the same historical average, transaction volumes were up 9 percent in 2020 and 18 percent in 2021 -- notable outliers.

 
 

Comparing 2022's monthly volumes to the historical average reveals recent volume declines that are still significant, but less extreme than a year-over-year comparison to 2021.

 
 

But in reality, 2022 has tracked favorably to the historical average and is still in somewhat "normal" territory, even considering the recent market slowdown.

 
 

The big picture: Despite dropping volumes, the commission pool -- which fuels the revenue of real estate agents, brokerages, portals, software providers, and more -- is set to be 34 percent, or $25 billion, higher than 2019.

  • This massive increase is being driven by rising home prices.

  • It would take a drop to 4 million existing home sales for the commission pool to hit what it was in 2019: $73 billion.

 
 

(These estimates assume 5.15M existing home sales at an average price of $375,000, with a commission of 5.06 percent as tracked by RealTrends. Things may change.)

The bottom line: The pandemic years of 2020 and especially 2021 were radical outliers on a number of levels, real estate being just one.

  • Issues of home affordability, dropping sales volumes, and rising interest rates are all contributing to a challenging 2022.

  • But, if we consider 2021 the outlier and not the benchmark, the market in 2022 doesn't look nearly as catastrophic as headlines suggest.

  • In fact, from a business perspective, there is significantly more money flowing through the system (from commissions) than any year other than 2021.

The Real Estate Portal + Mortgage Conundrum

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The largest global real estate portals are attempting to diversify and expand their revenue streams by offering mortgage -- with mixed success.

  • Zillow, Redfin, and Australia's REA Group have all made major forays into mortgage with large acquisitions.

  • Despite being technology companies, revenue growth is closely tied to employee count, and profitability (in the U.S.) remains elusive.

Dig deeper: Redfin's mortgage revenues jumped after its recent acquisition of Bay Equity for $138 million, but the overall business remains unprofitable.

 
 

Zillow's mortgage business has been unprofitable for over five years, recently spending $1.85 for every $1 in mortgage revenue.

 
 

Australia's leading portal, REA Group, has managed to grow a profitable financial services business by acquiring two large mortgage broking businesses.

  • Financial services now accounts for six percent of REA Group's total revenue.

 
 

Behind the numbers: Mortgage growth is very much tied to people -- mortgage brokers and mortgage loan originators (MLOs).

 
 

Mortgage business growth is tightly correlated to an increase in mortgage advisors (brokers and MLOs).

  • Redfin's mortgage originations are up 10x while MLO count is up 12x after acquiring Bay Equity.

  • REA's financial services revenue is up 2.8x while its number of mortgage brokers is up 2.7x after acquiring Mortgage Choice.

 
 

Broader context: The number of MLOs is an important bellwether for the ability of other real estate tech disruptors to grow in the mortgage space.

  • Some companies have shed MLOs through recent layoffs (Reali, Tomo, Homie, Knock, and Flyhomes), while others have grown organically and through acquisition (Orchard and Homeward).

The bottom line: Billions of dollars are being invested to disrupt the mortgage process -- which is the path to profitability for many real estate tech companies.

  • Instead of leading to greater profits, mortgage has turned into a money pit for the big U.S. real estate portals.

  • And at the end of the day, the evidence is clear: it's the number of brokers and MLOs that drives meaningful business growth.

Deeper Cuts Announced as Compass' Cash Burn Continues

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Compass' second quarter results are in with a higher than (I) expected cash burn rate for the quarter, but paired with a robust set of new cost cutting initiatives.

Why it matters: Compass has a cash burn problem (it spends more than it makes) and it needs to significantly reduce expenses to remain solvent -- which is exactly what it's doing.

  • Management's top goal is "generating free cash flow" as it announces a new, $320 million cost reduction program.

  • Compass' CEO took the unusual step of asserting that "Compass will not run out of cash."

Go deeper: Compass' challenge is that it burned through another $45 million in Q2, typically the most profitable quarter of the year for real estate brokerages.

  • Last year, Q2 was the only quarter when Compass generated free cash flow with a $41 million gain.

  • Cash burn was higher in Q1 than last year, and higher in Q2 than last year; in a rapidly cooling market, the pressure is on for the rest of the year.

 
 

Between Q1 and Q2, Compass grew its brokerage revenue in line with its peers (except Douglas Elliman for some reason).

  • The cooling market appears to be affecting all brokerages evenly, regardless of brand, tech platform, agent compensation, or anything else.

 
 

Compass is retaining its agents; there has yet to be a noticeable decrease in agent growth, a positive sign for the company.

 
 

After layoffs earlier in the year, Compass is cutting deeper with a $320 million "cost reduction program."

  • These cuts will target technology spend and agent incentives (remember, Compass has a 1,000 person tech team).

  • For reference, Compass is on track to spend $360 million on technology in 2022 (excluding stock-based compensation expense) -- the cuts will likely hit its tech team hard.

The bottom line: Compass continues to have a cash burn problem, but running out of cash would be a weird outcome.

  • To become cash flow positive, Compass is making major cuts -- the question is, can it do so while still remaining attractive to, and providing the same value to, its agents.

eXp's Business Model Advantage

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eXp has an exponentially more efficient cost structure than any of its brokerage peers.

Why it matters: In the highly uncertain market of 2022, with transaction volumes falling and brokerages responding by cutting costs, financial efficiency is more important than ever.

  • During my previous research on Compass' Cash Burn Problem and the Coming Brokerage Slowdown, I stumbled across a fascinating metric: operating expenses per transaction.

  • This metric measures the amount of company overhead -- support staff, office expense, technology, etc -- per closed transaction.

While its publicly-listed peers are all in the same ballpark, eXp has a remarkable advantage when it comes to operating expenses -- 10x more efficient than its peers.

  • And with over 110,000 transactions in Q1 2022, eXp is leveraging this advantage at scale.

 
 

The bottom line: The real estate industry is entering a period of heightened uncertainty with rising interest rates and falling transaction volumes, leading to a shrinking commission pool.

  • With a limited ability to affect revenue, brokerages will be forced to cut costs -- and in this environment, brokerages like eXp have a distinct advantage.

Brokerage Slowdown Begins

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All real estate brokerages experience a seasonal decline in revenue during the first three months of the year -- but the amount varies between brokerage.

Why it matters: The degree of revenue decline highlights which companies are under- and over-performing "the market" -- a possible leading indicator of who may be in more or less trouble during a turbulent year ahead.

  • Quarterly revenue has declined the most at Redfin and Realogy, the least at eXp and Douglas Elliman, and Compass sits right in the middle.

  • Consequently, Compass and Realogy are in the midst of a steep, seasonal revenue drop while eXp slowly makes it way closer to the top.

 
 

The market is slowing and real estate agents are doing fewer transactions.

  • For example, the number of transactions per agent at Compass is at record lows, lower than Q1 last year and on par with the early days of the pandemic.

 
 

The bottom line: The market is softening. Less transactions mean less brokerage revenue.

The Opendoor MLS

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Tucked away in Opendoor's recent earnings call was an enlightening statement by its CEO, Eric Wu, which sheds light on its exclusive supply strategy.

Why it matters: Exclusive content is a strategy being driven by VC-funded real estate tech disruptors, with important implications for consumers and a spotty track record of success.

  • A possible endgame for Opendoor is to match exclusive supply with demand directly -- off the MLS -- through an Opendoor ecosystem.

 
 

The benefits to Opendoor are clear: avoiding agent commissions, controlling the consumer experience start to finish, and streamlining the sales process.

Opendoor is not alone in wanting to build a supply of exclusive inventory to draw consumers to its private platform.

 
 

Compass also uses exclusive content to drive consumers directly to its platform, a clear endgame for the business.

  • Compass encourages sellers to list exclusively and privately on its platform.

  • Nearly a quarter of Compass' current listings are exclusive; a homebuyer has to call a Compass agent for access.

 
 

Yes, but: This isn't new.

The rise of exclusive content in real estate risks fragmenting the search and discovery process -- with considerable implications for consumers.

  • Buyers lose easy access to a complete view of the market by being forced to visit multiple sites (or call an agent like it's 1995).

  • For sellers, it fragments and artificially reduces the number of possible buyers, which could lead to less demand and a lower price for a property.

The bottom line: There is incredible value to whoever controls the home search platform. In the U.S., that's Zillow, realtor.com, and hundreds of MLSs.

  • New platforms -- leveraging exclusive content -- are a significant threat to these incumbent platforms.

  • And so far, the benefit to consumers is questionable.

Go deeper: I've previously explored this topic in my Strategic Analysis of The Top Threat to Real Estate Portals. Spoiler alter: It's exclusive content.

This analysis looks at several case studies from around the world.

Compass' Cash Burn Problem

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Compass' latest financial results reveal a company that burned $142 million in cash during the first three months of 2022, with $476 million left in the bank.

Why it matters: Manufactured profitability metrics aside, cash is the fuel that powers all businesses.

  • Compass has a track record of significant cash burn (over $400 million in the past 15 months), with high fixed operating costs and expensive acquisitions.

 
 

There's a widening gap between Compass' gross profit (revenues after commission expense) and its operating expenses.

 
 

Compass is burning more cash and operates more unprofitably than any of its publicly-listed peers.

  • Realogy, eXp, and Douglas Elliman all have gross profits higher than their operating expenses.

 
 

Compass' cost base is significantly higher than last year; operating expenses are up 50 percent from Q1 2021 (excluding stock-based compensation).

  • But revenue growth is soft; Compass is only projecting eight percent revenue growth in Q2.

  • This is only operating expenses, and doesn't include capital expenditures and acquisitions.

 
 

Compass' cash burn over the next 12 months is highly dependent on the overall real estate market.

  • There's not a lot of margin of error; a challenging 2022 market will depress revenue and increase cash burn.

  • Specific projections aside, there is an undeniable downward trend in Compass' available cash balance, which is becoming more difficult to ignore.

 
 

What to watch: Compass is not in immediate peril, but it is approaching a critical juncture where it will either need to raise more money or reduce expenses.

  • The Compass business model relies on massive amounts of investment capital to subsidize massive financial losses.

  • It's not clear that the business can achieve breakeven on its current trajectory; its cash burn is unsustainable.

  • Compass may be forced to enact significant layoffs to recalibrate its burn rate.

Cash is king: After years of big spending, access to seemingly unlimited amounts of capital, and sustained unprofitability, the time has come for Compass to demonstrate a durable, self-sustaining business model.

A note on projections: This analysis uses the midpoint of Compass' guidance for Q2 revenue ($2.1 billion), and seasonal estimates for Q3 and Q4.

  • Gross margin is assumed to be 18 percent (Q1 2022 actual).

  • Operating expenses remain flat at Q1 2022 levels.

  • Roughly $50 million of capital expenditure and acquisition costs for the year (much lower than historical amounts; there was $190 million in 2021).

 
 

The Ever-Shifting Landscape of Mortgage Disruption

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Recent growth and contraction in the mortgage, iBuyer, and Power Buyer space has resulted in a reshuffling of the largest businesses aiming to disrupt the industry.

Why it matters: Mortgage is an emerging battleground in real estate, and the number of Mortgage Loan Originators (MLOs) employed by a company is an important leading indicator of that company's firepower and strategic intent in the space. Of note:

  • Opendoor has surged to #3 after acquiring RedDoor.

  • Significant layoffs at Knock and Homie have pushed Homeward into the #1 spot of emerging Power Buyers (full disclosure: I'm an advisor to Homeward).

Zillow and Knock have shed MLOs during a series of recent layoffs.

  • Zillow's MLO headcount is down 17 percent and Knock is down a massive 50 percent from December.

 
 

Better Mortgage and its employees have had a tough five months. So far, the business has lost about half -- around 600 -- of its MLOs through a series of layoffs.

 
 

Comparatively, Zillow still has significant firepower at its disposal; all eyes are on what's next for Zillow Home Loans in a post-Zillow Offers world.

 
 

Redfin and Prosperity Home Mortgage (a subsidiary of mega-broker HomeServices of America) dwarf Zillow and the others in the space, highlighting the latent power of incumbency.

  • Redfin (through Bay Equity), Prosperity, and Zillow operate more traditional mortgage businesses, while the others offer more disruptive services.

  • It's also important to differentiate between purchase and refinance business; many of the Power Buyers and iBuyers are focused on purchase.

 
 

The bottom line: Real estate tech disruptors are investing billions to build integrated brokerage and mortgage experiences.

  • Tracking MLOs over time reveals who is marshaling resources for future growth, who is making strategic retreats, and who has the most potential to effect change in the future.

Growth Machines: Compass, eXp, and the Future of Brokerage

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The major, publicly-listed brokerages all posted impressive revenue, transaction, and agent count growth in 2021.

Why it matters: In a notoriously slow-moving industry, these are eye-catching gains. Revenue at Compass beat out Realogy's owned brokerage group for the first time.

  • eXp Realty doubled its U.S. revenue in 2021. For a business already operating at scale, this is a very impressive feat.

By the numbers: eXp Realty rocketed past industry incumbent Realogy in an accelerating growth curve, topping 400,000 transactions in 2021.

 
 

Agent counts are driving this growth. Despite promises of disintermediation, disruption and technological efficiency, the agent is still central to the transaction.

  • Compared to its peers, agent growth at eXp Realty has been jaw-dropping. eXp added more new agents in 2021 than Compass has in total.

 
 

The big picture: Amidst the hyperbole of disruption, the future of brokerage is still being shaped by real estate agents.

  • Brokerages are growing by recruiting more agents. The more agents a brokerage adds, the more that transactions grow.

 
 

Agent recruitment is a key competitive advantage for brokerages; Compass and eXp's growth has been propelled by generous financial incentives offered to agents.

  • Be smart: Perhaps consider Compass' technology platform through the lens of agent recruitment and retention, and its level of investment is understandable.

A note on eXp Realty: The numbers above are estimated for the U.S. market. eXp reports global figures, but also gives the percentage of revenue generated outside of the U.S. I've used that to estimate U.S. agent count, transaction volume, and revenue.

Momentum Builds in Mortgage Disruption

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Significant changes continue in the mortgage space as portals, iBuyers, Power Buyers, and brokers invest in building end-to-end real estate ecosystems.

Why it matters: Real estate tech disruptors are investing billions to build integrated brokerage and mortgage experiences. These companies employ licensed brokers -- Mortgage Loan Originators (MLOs) -- that occupy a critical position in securing or refinancing a mortgage.

  • The number and growth of MLOs is an important leading indicator of a company's firepower and strategic intent.

Big picture: Of the venture-backed disruptor pack, the companies with the most MLOs are those attempting to develop a complete ecosystem play anchored around mortgage: Power Buyers.

  • Homeward, Knock, and Flyhomes are good examples, while Orchard lags due to a slower-growth employee agent business model.

 
 

Notable growth in MLOs occurred at Opendoor and Flyhomes, sending a strong signal of intent.

  • In November 2021, Opendoor acquired RedDoor, a digital-first mortgage brokerage, with 10 MLOs.

  • In Q4 2021, Flyhomes accelerated its hiring of MLOs to meet current and expected demand.

 
 

Comparatively, Zillow has more firepower but has been shedding MLOs since May 2021, with a significant drop in January.

  • Knock, a Power Buyer, also saw a significant decline in MLOs during January.

 
 

Redfin made a huge move in January, acquiring Bay Equity Home Loans for $135 million, adding 485 MLOs to its roster.

  • This positions Redfin well ahead of Zillow in terms of underwriting capacity -- and is a strong signal of future intent in the space.

 
 

Yes, but: All of these companies pale in comparison to the behemoths of the mortgage industry.

  • Rocket Mortgage (12k MLOs) and Better Mortgage (1.5k MLOs) have both announced plans of their own to expand into the brokerage space.

The bottom line: Mortgage lies directly on the path of brokers, portals, and disruptors attempting to build an end-to-end real estate ecosystem.

  • Opendoor is clearly ramping up its mortgage resources and ambitions, while Redfin has made a big investment in the space.

  • Tracking the number of MLOs over time reveals how serious these companies are and their potential to grab market share.

Next Gen Lead Gen

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Next generation lead generation is the most significant business model shift for real estate portals since their birth. It is the evolution towards delivering fully qualified leads with a commission share model, and it accounts for an increasing percentage of portal lead gen revenues -- while bringing them closer to the transaction.

An Emerging Global Trend

The evolution is occurring globally and targets both buyer and seller leads. The key themes include lead qualification and a commission share model (aka success fee).

Leading real estate portals around the world have made significant investments into next gen lead gen, including several large acquisitions.

 
 

The U.S. portals focus on monetizing buyer leads, while international portals like ImmoScout24 and MeilleursAgents focus on seller leads. The most effective way to reach prospective sellers is with property valuations: “What is my home worth?”

A key element of this model is that leads are qualified before being handed off to a partner agent. Leads are called directly by the portal, typically within minutes of submitting a form.

 
 

The second key element of next gen lead gen is the use of a commission share, or success fee, model. If a lead transacts, the agent pays a percentage of their commission back to the portal.

 
 

The commission share varies by market, but is generally around a third of an agent's commission. And this source of revenue accounts for an increasing share of portal revenue; realtor.com generates about a third of its lead gen revenue from the commission share model, as does ImmoScout24.

 
 

A Win for Consumers, Portals, and (some) Agents

Next gen lead gen lays the groundwork for a triple win: the promise of a better consumer experience, less wasted time for agents, and a more valuable product for portals.

The potential downside of next gen lead gen programs lie in their exclusive nature. It's not for everyone; agent networks consist of a small and exclusive group of the total agent pool.

 
 

Over the long term, the agents not participating in these programs will receive fewer online leads, and may be at a significant competitive disadvantage in the race to acquire customers. Next gen lead gen is revolutionizing the portal lead gen business model, but it only works for the agents that jump on board.

Next Gen Lead Gen is a major trend discussed in my Real Estate Portal Strategy Handbook.

How Data Can Be Used to Mislead: Compass' Results Told Three Ways

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“In God we trust; all others bring data.” The power of data in evidence-based research is critical, but even data -- used certain ways -- can mangle the truth. As a case study of how data can be manipulated to tell different stories, I examine Compass' recent financial results three different ways.

Method 1: The Annual, Single-Company View

The first method, which is what Compass uses, compares key metrics to the corresponding period one year ago -- annual growth. Compared to Q3 2020 (and remember, 2020 was a pretty weird year), Compass experienced significant growth in revenue and transaction volumes -- up 47 percent and 36 percent respectively.

 
 

Compass' revenue growth was driven by more transactions, which in turn were driven by more agents (a 31 percent increase in Principle Agents). An annual comparison method accounts for seasonality in the business and is a great metric for companies in a relatively mature state, but falls short without important context.

Method 2: The Quarterly Single-Company View

An annual comparison is tricky for high-growth companies; the numbers are always huge. A granular look over time reveals deeper trends: Compared to the previous quarter, Compass' revenue actually declined, and its guidance for Q4 is a further decline.

 
 

Compass is subject to the same headwinds as any brokerage: inventory, seasonality, and agent recruitment & retention. It clearly hit a (seasonal?) peak in Q2, and now the business is slowing.

On a quarterly basis, Compass' losses are also stacking up. After approaching profitability last quarter, the company has returned to a net loss this quarter ($71 million of which is stock-based compensation expense).

 
 

A quarterly view over time introduces momentum and trends. It reveals that Compass's growth isn't steady (something that isn't clear with an annual comparison), and that the business appears to be slowing down -- with losses.

Method 3: The Quarterly & Annual Multi-Company View

This method adds additional perspective with the context of Compass' publicly-listed peers. The numbers above lack context; is Compass under- or over-performing in the market?

It turns out that on an annual basis, revenue is growing at all of Compass' peers. Compass' growth rate is in the middle of the pack, larger than Realogy and Redfin, but lower than eXp Realty.

 
 

On a more granular basis (comparing to the previous quarter), Compass stands out with a revenue drop larger than its peers. As we saw above, something happened in Q3, and Compass' slowdown is more pronounced than any of its peers.

 
 

Finally, it's worth noting that Compass is materially less profitable -- unprofitable, in fact -- when compared to its brokerage peers. Realogy and eXp are generating significant net profits, while Compass continues to burn cash.

 
 

A peer comparison highlights key business model differences and provides another angle on the recent business slowdown. And while Realogy may be viewed as the less exciting, slow-growth industry incumbent, it runs a sustainable, durable, and profitable business model.

Strategic Implications

There's not one, right way to tell this story. But there's always different angles to consider, and multiple data points to triangulate the truth.

Exploring the complexity of real estate through evidence, context, and storytelling is a passion of mine. It's easy to manipulate the truth, or provide various versions of it, depending on the data presented. The truth is out there -- it just takes a critical eye to find it.

The Real Estate Disruptors Serious About Mortgage — A 10x Story

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Real estate tech disruptors are investing billions to build integrated brokerage and mortgage experiences. Some have more resources than others, but all have the same scaling bottlenecks. And in the end, the biggest disruptors -- and who is most at risk -- may come as a surprise.

The Bottlenecks to Scale

Each company employs licensed brokers -- Mortgage Loan Originators (MLOs) -- that occupy a critical position in securing or refinancing a mortgage. As with real estate, people remain a central component of the mortgage process, and no amount of technology, venture capital, or inspirational vision has yet to replace them.

 
 

MLOs are both a key component and a bottleneck for the iBuyers, Power Buyers, and others attempting to attach mortgage to their core services. The speed at which they hire MLOs, and the total number employed, is a reflection of how serious they are and their potential to grab market share.

 
 

Homeward and Knock, fresh off big funding rounds, are quickly growing. Newcomer Tomo is moving fast. Notably, the iBuyers remain relatively small. There is no outsize leader...until real estate portal Zillow is added into the mix.

 
 

Zillow has nearly 10x the MLOs of its smaller competitors, giving it significantly more scale and firepower for its integrated mortgage plans. Zillow is the top player...until pure play digital disrupter Better Mortgage is added into the mix.

 
 

Better Mortgage has raised nearly $1 billion in its quest to disrupt mortgage, and has nearly 10x the MLOs of Zillow. Significant firepower and scale, and clearly the top player...until industry behemoth Rocket Mortgage is added into the mix.

 
 

Ten MLOs to ten thousand MLOs. And: The number of MLOs roughly corresponds to closed loan volumes: $1.2 billion for Zillow, $14 billion for Better, and $65 billion for Rocket in Q1 2021.

Who's Disrupting Whom?

Both Rocket and Better recently announced they're hiring in-house real estate agents, which raises an interesting question about who's disrupting whom. Real estate tech companies are going after mortgage, but now mortgage is going after real estate.

 
 

These companies all have different approaches, but the destination is the same: an integrated real estate experience that seamlessly combines mortgage and brokerage. And the key execution trends are clear: in-house agents and MLOs, paired with deep discounts for consumers.

Perhaps the true takeaway is that those companies not included on the chart are the ones at risk. Whether it's being initiated from the real estate or mortgage side, both components are being smartly combined to provide an integrated, highly convenient consumer experience. The companies unable to provide that are the ones at risk.

Compass Nears Profitability as it Outperforms Incumbent Peers

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It's earnings season, which means press releases with huge numbers and big percentage gains, but light on helpful context. Compass posted big numbers; its quarterly growth is generally in line with its peers, while its record revenue is the result of continuous incremental outperformance.

Pandemic-Fueled Revenue Leap

Compass experienced a significant increase in revenue this past quarter -- a seasonal uplift fueled by a hot housing market. Compass has a history of large Q2 revenue jumps (delayed by a quarter in 2020 due to the pandemic).

 
 

When it comes to a global pandemic and real estate, a rising tide lifts all boats. Many of Compass' publicly-listed peers, including Realogy, eXp Realty, and Redfin, also experienced record breaking revenue growth. The quarterly growth rates follow a similar pattern.

 
 

They key is that Compass (and eXp) are outperforming their peers by a few percentage points each quarter -- the highs are higher and the lows not as low. That compounding effect adds up over time, and has resulted in Compass finally surpassing Realogy's brokerage revenue in Q2 2021: $1.95 billion vs. $1.77 billion.

 
 

Approaching Profitability (?!)

Compass also announced a net loss of only $7 million -- a huge improvement over past quarterly losses. The improvement was driven by Compass increasing its revenues and gross profit (by a lot) without a corresponding increase in expenses.

 
 

Future profitability hinges on more of the same: a favorable real estate market with a high volume of transactions, without a proportionate increase in expenses.

Strategic Implications

Like eXp Realty, Compass' revenue has increased exponentially over the past two years, driven by incredibly favorable market conditions that have benefited all real estate brokerages -- but some more than others.

 
 

Huge industry incumbents like Realogy have benefitted the least, while upstarts Compass and eXp have grown the most. Even tech-enabled Redfin, with so much going for it, pales in comparison to its peers.

The hot real estate market has fueled strong growth across the industry. Compass' growth is noteworthy, and demonstrates that while the industry moves slowly, some players move faster than others.