Opendoor Set to Cash In from Record Home Price Appreciation

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Home price appreciation is through the roof again, and Opendoor's buy-to-list premium (the difference between the purchase price and current listing price of a home) is at record highs.

Why it matters: Opendoor is going to make a lot of money in the first half of 2022.

Dig deeper: Opendoor's houses are currently listed for a median of 17 percent -- or $60k -- higher than what they were purchased for, on average, 72 days earlier.

  • This is based on 1,700 listings as of March 15, 2022 (excluding Texas), and according to YipitData's historical analysis through February, is an all-time high.

  • The distribution across listings shows a significant improvement from the end of 2021 -- and is pushing so high I had to adjust the chart's x-axis.

 
 

Buy-to-list is a good leading indicator of iBuyer profitability, and is usually a few percentage points higher than the eventual sales price.

  • Buy-to-list in one quarter generally affects the following quarter: Opendoor's low buy-to-list in Q3 2021 resulted in a low buy-to-sale premium and contribution margin in Q4 2021 (3.3 percent).

 
 

Opendoor is going to have a blockbuster Q2 2022 -- contribution margin is on track to exceed 2021's highs of 10 percent.

 
 

Yes, but: If Opendoor is the winner here, who is the loser?

  • Opendoor is no different than any other home seller in the market. If the home seller is the winner, the loser must then be home buyers -- scant inventory and rocketing home prices are making homes less affordable.

  • Opendoor is simply riding the market wave, and riding it really well (remember Zillow Offers?).

What's next: What goes up must come down; home price appreciation will slow, and Opendoor will once again need to deftly read the market and adjust its purchasing activity.

  • These extreme market risks are a big reason Zillow exited iBuying.

The bottom line: Opendoor (and Offerpad) are going to benefit tremendously from rising home price appreciation in the first half of 2022.

  • It's worth noting that this key financial driver isn't within Opendoor's control. Wildly rising home price appreciation isn't a business strategy, it's the market.